Even though there is a fragile truce in the Middle East and oil prices are stable on world markets, drivers in Slovakia should not expect fuel prices to drop quickly. Experts predict that the effects of the geopolitical shock will be felt at gas stations until at least the end of 2026.
Market experts explain that the main obstacle to lower prices is serious logistical difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is made worse by the condition of the infrastructure in the Persian Gulf countries, as oil facilities damaged during the active phase of the conflict need a long time to be repaired and return to their previous capacity.
An additional factor causing pressure is the structural vulnerability of the European market, which, after refusing Russian energy sources, has become critically dependent on imports from distant regions. Currently, the main problem is not so much a shortage of crude oil, but a physical lack of finished diesel fuel, which makes Europe extremely sensitive to any disruptions in global supply chains.
Specifics of the Slovak Market
Currently, the average price of A-95 gasoline in Slovakia is €1.665, and diesel is €1.751. Although this is lower than in neighboring Austria or the Czech Republic, analysts call this situation "distorted."
Slovnaft has been holding back price increases for a long time, which caused the market to react to the crisis more slowly than in neighboring countries. However, the same mechanism works in reverse: when oil prices fall on exchanges, prices at Slovak gas stations drop with a significant delay. In addition, gas station operators will try to compensate for losses from previous weeks when they operated with minimal or zero profit margins.
Neighboring countries are using different methods to combat the fuel shock. Hungary and Slovakia introduced dual prices (cheaper for their citizens, more expensive for foreigners), which has already caused protests from the European Commission for violating EU rights. The Czech Republic chose to lower excise taxes and set a price ceiling, which helped to immediately reduce the price of diesel by 12 cents.
Experts warn that any government intervention in pricing carries risks. If the price is set significantly below the market price, a fuel shortage will occur, which has already been observed at some small gas stations. Therefore, until stable peace is achieved in the Middle East and logistics are fully restored, do not expect prices to return to the February level (around €1.47) by the end of the year.
