Record gas prices on exchanges seem like they should hit wallets this winter. For Slovak households (živnosť - trade license), the situation looks different: the regulator fixed prices for 2026 in advance, so the exchange fever does not directly affect them. The worrying signals concern next year, and here it is worth understanding what exactly is happening.
What happened on the exchanges
In July, the price of natural gas at the Dutch TTF hub reached €63.575 per MWh — the highest level in the last two years. Electricity for Slovakia on the Prague PXE exchange with delivery next year rose over €127 per MWh, which is 6.34% more in just one week, reports Teraz.sk.
There are several reasons, and they overlap:
- Gas reserves in European storage are less than half full, so before winter the EU will have to actively buy liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will push prices up.
- Europe has finally switched from cheap Russian pipeline gas to more expensive LNG. This is a structural change after which prices will not return to pre-crisis levels.
- Limited refinery capacities, sanctions, and tension around trade routes in the Red Sea increase insurance and logistics costs.
Analysts at Slovenská sporiteľňa warn of a new price jump in the second half of 2026. For industry, it is already noticeable, while households still have a safety cushion.
How much households really pay
The Office for Regulation of Network Industries (ÚRSO) approved prices for this year back in early December 2025. The average final electricity price for households increased by only 2.78% from January, according to the regulator's website. In money terms, it looks like this:
- An apartment with tariff D1 (consumption up to 1100 kWh per year) — plus €47.21 to annual costs.
- A multi-apartment building with tariff D2 (average consumption 2272 kWh) — plus €104.76 per year.
- Heating became symbolically more expensive — on average by €4 per year.
- Water supply and sewage — about €68 per year.
Gas is a separate story. The fuel itself at maximum price even became slightly cheaper, but final bills increased by about 33% because the state reduced last year's subsidies. If you heat your home with gas, you have already felt this in your bills this year. This is where you should review your housing expenses and heating methods.
Why does the exchange record not affect these numbers? Because ÚRSO fixed the price of power electricity for households at €72.70 per MWh, while the market price is much higher. The regulator directly states that it used all available tools to soften market fluctuations.
What changed since July
From July 1, 2026, four new ÚRSO decrees (vyhlášky № 159/2026, 160/2026, 161/2026, and 162/2026) came into force. They change the rules of market operation and price regulation in the electricity and gas sectors. For the average consumer, this means the market rules have been updated, but protection of final prices for households remains.
What this means for you and what to do
The worst-case scenario this year does not threaten you: electricity, gas, and heating bills will remain at the approved level until the end of 2026, no matter how much exchanges jump. The risk window is 2027. If storage is not filled by winter and LNG prices continue to rise, it will be harder for the regulator to hold prices, and increases will be included in new tariffs.
Practical steps that make sense now:
- Check your tariff and annual consumption — it determines which category (D1, D2, or other) you belong to.
- If you heat with gas, calculate how +33% affected your budget and include this amount in winter expenses.
- Follow ÚRSO decisions in autumn — that is when prices for the next year are formed, and it will become clear how much the exchange price increase will reach households.
Amid energy, there is also an encouraging signal for the economy overall: the PMI business activity index in the eurozone rose from 50.0 to 51.9 points, in Germany — from 49.5 to 51.2. Values above 50 mean growth, so demand for labor, which we write about separately, is still holding.
