This is what the result of the parliamentary elections in Slovakia would look like if they took place in mid-July: Robert Fico's Smer-SD party would win with 19.6% of the votes. This is data from a SANEP agency poll for the ta3 television channel. It was conducted from July 9 to 16 among 1542 respondents, which is a representative sample of the country's adult population.
For Ukrainians living in Slovakia, these numbers are not just political statistics. The composition of the parliament determines who forms the government, and therefore, the country's migration, social, and economic policies that you encounter daily: from decisions on temporary protection to the amounts of aid and housing prices.
How the votes were distributed
The second position is for Progresívne Slovensko (PS): 18.2%. The gap with the leader is minimal, only 1.4 percentage points, so within the margin of error, these two parties are practically tied.
Next is the main surprise of the poll. The Hlas-SD party, which has long been among the top three strongest, has dropped to fourth place with 11.1%. It was overtaken by the far-right Republika with 11.5%, and this force would take third place for the first time.
A total of eight political forces would overcome the five percent threshold to the Národná rada SR (National Council of the Slovak Republic):
- Smer-SD — 19.6%
- Progresívne Slovensko — 18.2%
- Republika — 11.5%
- Hlas-SD — 11.1%
- KDH — 7.2%
- SaS — 6.1%
- coalition Slovensko, Za ľudí, KÚ — 5.5%
- SNS — 5.1%
What this means in mandates
In the 150-seat parliament, the seats would be distributed as follows: Smer-SD — 35, Progresívne Slovensko — 33, Republika — 21, Hlas-SD — 20, KDH — 13, SaS — 11, coalition Slovensko, Za ľudí, KÚ — 10, SNS — 7.
An interesting detail: a majority requires 76 seats, and neither of the two current coalition combinations automatically provides this number without complex agreements. As Pravda writes, Igor Matovič with the Slovensko movement remains a key figure in possible scenarios. His position will determine whether an alternative majority can be formed.
Conservative Bloc: a third force that doesn't exist yet
Sociologists also checked a hypothetical scenario: what if a united "Conservative Bloc" (Konzervatívny blok) ran in the elections? Such an alliance could count on 15.3% of the votes and would immediately become the third strongest political faction, ahead of both Republika and Hlas-SD.
This is an important signal for all players: the conservative electorate in Slovakia is significant overall, but it is scattered among several parties, and some of them risk not getting into parliament at all.
Why this is important for Ukrainians to know
A poll is not a forecast, but a snapshot of sentiments in mid-July. However, it is based on these sentiments that parties build their strategies: the strengthening of Republika and the decline of Hlas-SD are forcing both the government and the opposition to adjust their rhetoric, particularly regarding social benefits, migration, and foreign policy. A publication by the television channel with the full SANEP results is available on the official ta3 page.
The practical conclusion is simple: Slovakia's political map remains divided, and neither side has a guaranteed advantage. If you are planning long-term affairs in the country — from processing residence permits to opening a živnosť (sole-trader licence) — it is worth following these shifts, as they often precede changes in laws.
